Monday, 2 April 2012

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Simon Denham's Daily Market Comment

Equity markets ended the first quarter well and recorded some of the best gains for Q1 for many years, particularly across the pond where the S & P hasn’t seen such strength since 1998 and the Nasdaq since 1991.  That’s enough to make even the most sceptical of bulls mildly optimistic, however the overriding fear remains that we see a repeat of a year ago where expectations were for the economic recovery to grab a stronghold and continue well into this year only for the European sovereign debt crisis to blow up in investors’ faces.

So far 2012 has started in a similar fashion as businesses are becoming slightly more optimistic about the future and they are starting to recruit a few more people in expectation of improving growth, but they are holding back from really ramping up investment as they don’t want to have their fingers burnt again like they were this time last year.  There’s a high probability that the next European nation might become embroiled in the crisis with either Portugal needing another bailout or Spain and Italy, far bigger economies than those bailed out so far, suddenly falling off their tightrope.

The markets are being tempered by the fact that last week European leaders (sorry I meant Germany) have agreed to increase the bailout facility with a few extra hundred billion euros and that confidence surveys have not yet fallen off a cliff.

China remains a crucial piece in the whole jigsaw and their PMI numbers overnight have given the market a little boost as we commence this second quarter.  The PMI theme continues throughout this week as we see surveys from the UK, Germany and US on manufacturing and services.  UK and EU manufacturing data is out this morning with the UK number due to fall but remain above the 50 mark and for the EU it’s due to remain unchanged under the 50 level.  Then this afternoon we see the US’s cards, as well as construction spending which are both expected to rise, and good numbers here might just spur the US markets into action and see them start the second quarter where they left the first.

At the time of writing the FTSE is at 5790 up almost one percent as the index finds support around the 5730 area for the second time in a month.  This double bottom is not only a crucial support level for the index, but it might be enough to attract bulls back into the market, an indication of which we’re already seeing this morning.

The euro ran out of a bit of steam as the week drew to an end, but momentum started to pick up again over the weekend after news that EU finance ministers will increase the eurozone bailout funds.  This along with Spain's latest budget report, which outlines plans to cut 27bn euros in deficit by raising taxes, has encouraged the euro bulls back into the market.  The euro is trading higher against the dollar this morning at 1.3345 and could push on higher to its next resistance level at 1.3385.

Gold pushed higher last week as the dollar weakened and ended the quarter comfortably higher.  News that the eurozone bailout fund is to be increased also gave the yellow metal support as money will continue to be pumped into the system.  The safe haven is up over 6.5 percent for the year already, but this is the first time since 1998 that the S&P has had a better first quarter. This suggests that confidence is high and the gearing is more towards higher risk investments, which may cool the interest for safer places like gold.  This morning it is trading at 1666, down 0.1 percent on the day.