Monday, 26 March 2012

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Simon Denham's Daily Market Comment

This week has got off to a good start for the markets but a bad start for our Dave with his party embroiled in a nasty backlash that could really damage him, his party and the coalition which up until now has done well to survive.  But whilst politicians continue to use unhelpful rhetoric towards business and in particular the banks they fail to keep their own houses in order and most importantly fail to learn from other recent mistakes of a similar nature.  It wasn’t long ago that the current business secretary was found boasting to journalists that he could bring down the government, a comment which won’t have as much effect as what was unveiled over the week end could possibly have.

Whilst the Tories are embroiled by the recent comments made by their ex co-treasurer, the FTSE has commenced the session by attempting to claw back some of the losses from last week, but already it seems to have given up the ghost.  We opened over 20 points higher, but have been quick to reverse these gains as the market is roughly flat at the time of writing.  Last week’s sell off doesn’t look to be attracting the buyers in their masses just yet, and whilst we’ve seen retracements last a short while so far this year this one just seems to have been a little more prolonged.  Clients have been buying into this dip expecting the bounce to happen and considering the strength of the rally so far in 2012 it’s not an unreasonable view to think that we could see another run higher in this final week of the quarter.

But we are all too aware of the hurdles in the way.  Oil prices are one of them and they remain stubbornly high with the tensions in the Middle East ongoing.  The prices at the pump are really starting to bite as £100 to fill up most cars now is a considerable sum of money for cash strapped families that are reliant on driving everywhere.  It doesn’t look like oil prices are going to crash at any point either and here in the UK a fuel duty rise is due in August.  Our George would have done his sums for last week’s budget taking into account that duty is due to rise later on in the summer and so it will be almost impossible for him to reverse such a hike.  £100 to fill up the tank might soon become £125 or even higher at this rate.

There is little in the way of economic data today although US Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is making a speech at a business conference today and there is US pending home sales this afternoon.

The euro managed to end the week positively against the dollar, as weak US data revealed new home sales declined for a second consecutive month.  The single currency was also helped on as French growth estimates were revised upwards and also talks of EU policy makers combining two rescue funds to make money more available to debt stricken countries.  This morning the euro is trading slightly lower against the dollar at 1.3250 and sees support at 1.3190 and resistance sits at 1.3290.

As more news about Iran hit the news wires, demand for gold as a hedge in times of havoc was boosted.  This resulted in the yellow brick spiking, closing the session at 1661.4, 18.4 bucks up on the day, which also received assistance from the weaker US dollar.  It still seems that bargain hunters aren't using their full force after the drop from February 29th high of 1790.0, so will it need to break the resistance of 1670.0 before any real buying power is seen?  Currently the precious metal is trading at 1665.9.

Crude prices were driven higher on Friday after a report showing Iranian oil exports had dropped by 300,000 barrels a day caused fear in the energy markets.  Investors showed their belief that it was just a matter of time before issues in the Middle East bared its teeth again and Friday's report showed that this was the case.  At time of writing, Brent is trading at 124.86.