Monday, 14 May 2012

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Simon Denham's Daily Market Comment

European markets are selling mode once again as the political fallout in Greece is knocking confidence across financial markets. The delay to any government formation is bringing bond repayment deadlines closer and without a coalition soon another round of elections will be needed which will simply cause more uncertainty as the anti-austerity party that is causing the deadlock is gaining significantly in the polls. When you’ve got central bankers talking about how to deal with a possible “Grexit” then it really is more likely that the euro as we know it today could be very different to the euro we’ll know at the end of the year. In fact many parts of the market have been preparing for an exit for sometime now and for them what’s happening is just the beginning of the end of their euro membership.

On top of this the many Germans who went to the polls at the week end gave Chancellor Merkel a slap on the wrist in an anti-austerity vote, and worryingly for her it is a warning for the re-election bid in 18 months time. In order to appeal to her electorate she will likely have to take a less aggressive stance when it comes to austerity, which will play into the hands of the newly elected French President who meets Merkel this week. But letting profligate European governments go on spending sprees once again will only serve to destroy all the hard work that’s been done so far to try and balance the books.

The FTSE had been called to open lower by some 50 points but it has actually now broken below the 5500 level and we’re seeing a sea of red across the dealers’ screens. Banking stocks are feeling the brunt of the selling and the weakness is attracting some buyers who have been used to the FTSE bouncing swiftly following any declines, but this time the bounce doesn’t seem to be forthcoming. As a result we’re ticking back towards the lows of the year set last week and this time the failure to bounce off the 200 day moving average doesn’t bode well for the bulls. With so much negative sentiment surrounding Greece there seems to be few investors willing to buy at these levels.

With little in the way of any economic data out today the focus will be on Italian and Spanish bond auctions. Both countries have seen their yield on the 10 year governments creeping higher in recent days, with Spain’s getting back above 6%, but as yet neither have really raced away out of control.

The euro continues to weaken now that it has firmly established itself below the 1.3000 level. A few positive cues in the form of Greece receiving €4.2B from the current rescue package and Spain partially nationalising Bankia failed to provide any upward momentum. However, uncertainty about Greece’s commitments to the EU/IMF bailout conditions still place huge downward pressure on the single currency and this morning EUR/USD is at 1.2880 and bears will be watching the support levels at 1.2875/60 closely. Meanwhile the resistance is seen quite some way off at 1.2955/80.

Gold prices continued to slide on Friday as risk aversion sent traders fleeing out of risky assets and into the safety of the dollar. The rush into dollars over the last few days has seen gold make new lows for the year. Spot gold fell 0.8 percent to $1,580.25 an ounce, shedding 3.7% on the week. This morning that weakness is continuing into today with the yellow brick at $1570.

Crude oil prices continue to hold below $96 pressured by the slowdown in China, turmoil surrounding Greece and the news from OPEC that supplies were 8% higher than consumer demand. With supplies more than ample and negative cues in the global economy sapping demand prices look set to remain under pressure.