Monday, 28 May 2012

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Simon Denham's Daily Market Comment

As the month of May draws to a close investors will remember it for the reigniting of the eurozone crisis where investors saw already tetchy financial markets take a turn for the worse and heading towards bear market territory.  The FTSE has lost 6% up to now with the Dax off nearly 6.5% in May, but this morning at least the fears of a return to a bear market have abated with indices starting the week in fine form.

Despite a higher than estimated reading in the US consumer confidence last Friday it seemed events in Europe had the upper hand again, pushing the Dow Jones 76 points lower to 12,455.  Requests for help from the regional governments in Spain raised concerns about the country’s financial health amid ongoing uncertainty regarding Greece’s membership in the euro.  So, ahead of a holiday weekend in the US investors avoided taking chances, leaving the relief rally for another day.

Today is Memorial Day in the US so markets across the pond are closed and we can expect low volumes as a result over this side.  The next couple of weeks see lots of bank holidays in various countries and as the summer months get underway, with in particular the double whammy bank holiday in the UK next week for the Queen’s Jubilee, volumes may struggle over the coming weeks.

The FTSE has already made a visit back above 5400 this morning and is looking in good shape starting this week that will see a plethora of economic data releases.  These early gains are down to the latest poll from Greece which has shown a strong percentage of voters are willing to give pro-bailout parties a chance, purely because the vast majority of Greeks would rather stay in the euro than leave.  The alternative of an exit aren’t in the slightest bit appetising for Greek voters are they appreciate a return to the Drachma will be a very painful experience, causing serious uncertainty well beyond its shores.

Yet the risks of the eurozone crisis escalating further still remain very apparent with Spanish ten year government bond yields edging higher this morning where they stand at 6.4%.  The money the government is throwing at Bankia is making investors nervous that the sovereign will soon need a bailout out if their yields carry on ticking higher in the fashion.

There is nothing in the way of economic data out today with the bank holiday in the US, but highlights for the rest of the week are US, UK and EU consumer confidence, US GDP data and unemployment figures in the form of the ADP number on Thursday and the big NFP on Friday.

The euro continued its plunge versus the greenback last Friday on the back of renewed speculation that Greece’s financial troubles are becoming contagious.  It was Spain’s regional governments which admitted their struggle with high borrowing costs that sent the shared currency 21 pips down to 1.2512.  However, the euro opened higher last night and is on its way for a recovery amid expectations of thin volumes due to the Memorial Day holiday in the US.

In the face of a slightly stronger US dollar, gold prices moved up $14.4 on Friday, finishing at $1572.3 thus paring some of overall losses for the week.  Concerned that events in Europe might escalate at any moment, investors exited those previously short positions especially ahead of an extended weekend in the US.

It was a draw in the energy sector as the positive influence of better than expected US economic data was cancelled off by signs of problems popping up elsewhere in Europe (Spain) not just in Greece.  The chart indicated a slightly higher close for the WTI prices at $90.86 but within an inside day pattern.  Today’s trading is anticipated to be thin due to the Memorial Day holiday in the US so watch out for any possible spikes.



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