Friday, 17 February 2012

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Simon Denham's Daily Market Comment

US markets continue to ignore what’s going on in Europe as they rally higher putting the Dow within touching distance of the 13000 level.  Across the pond things are very different to what is happening in Europe with the economy growing and unemployment falling. Yesterday initial jobless claims and manufacturing data came in better than expected which led to a strong rally for the likes of the Dow, S & P and Nasdaq.  These indices are now very close to making new highs for the year with the tech stocks about to mark new record highs.  It goes to show that there is a disconnect between US and European markets at the moment where European investors remain engulfed with the concerns over Greece however other parts of the globe are either bored of talking about the sovereign debt crisis or oblivious to the consequences of a major fallout.

Last night’s rally in the Dow is allowing the FTSE to wipe out any recent losses making any falls a thing of the past.  The fact that any dip is being met with buying shows that the bulls are reluctant to give this rally up without a fight pushing UK stocks to near six month highs. At the time of writing the FTSE is at 5915 and bulls seem to have their tail up as they target the 6000 level.  A break above near term resistance at 5920 could see a test of 5955 and beyond.  To the downside support is seen at 5855 and 5830.

Today a little bit of economic data is due in the form of UK retail sales which is expected to decline.  With the heavy discounting over Christmas and in January consumers gave retailers a boost as they took advantage of bargains, but since then they have failed to put their hands in their pockets.  New Year sales have been longer than I can remember as shops attempt to entice people through their doors.

At lunchtime there’s the US CPI figures which are expected to show that prices rose by 0.3%, still a long way off the sort of inflation experienced in the UK, but an indication of the growing economy in North America.

As equity markets recovered from their lows, so did the euro after briefly dipping below 1.3000. The move below the big figure didn’t last all that long before the bulls were back in town adding over one hundred ticks to EUR/USD.  The rumour was that the ECB was exchanging Greek bonds for new securities and thus increasing the chances that the bailout will go ahead.  This morning EUR/USD is trading at 1.3125 and near term support and resistance are seen at 1.3040, 1.2970 and 1.3190, 1.3215 respectively.

The bounce in risk assets was very much to the detriment of the Japanese Yen which gave a boost to USD/JPY allowing the pair to continue its move above the 200 day moving average. This hasn’t been seen since April last year and so is believed to be quite a significant move. Usually during a move into riskier assets you’d expect the greenback to suffer, but yesterday’s bullish economic data sent the dollar higher against the Yen.  At the time of writing USD/JPY is at 79.10 and near term support and resistance is seen at 78.50, 78.15 and 79.30, 79.50 respectively.

Gold found some short term support at 1710 once again bouncing back to over 1720 and this morning is at 1731 as it enjoys the same strength that indices are seeing.  The precious metal has yet to break to new highs and doubts still remain about the recent rally but this morning’s strength indicates that the bulls haven’t given up the fight yet.  Targets to the upside are seen at 1737, 1742 and 1752 meanwhile support is seen at 1705 and 1692.